Israel Election 2026: Eisenkot Leads, No Bloc Near 61
Israel votes on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, in a parliamentary election that final opinion polls say is heading for deadlock. Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot’s new party Yashar leads most final surveys, but neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition camp is close to the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
Final polls: Eisenkot ahead, Likud second
The last polls published before Israel’s polling blackout put Eisenkot’s Yashar at 21 to 23 seats, ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud at 19 to 21 seats in three of the four major television surveys. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party ranks third at 14 to 15 seats. One survey, from i24NEWS, diverged sharply, putting Likud first at 26 seats against 21 for Yashar — a reminder that polls measure different samples and models, not a single settled result.
No bloc reaches 61
Across the final surveys, Netanyahu’s bloc stands at 48 to 50 seats, while the opposition change bloc stands at 52 to 56 seats, with Arab parties holding a further 14 to 16 seats. The Maariv poll published on October 23 put the opposition at 54 and the coalition at 48, after Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party fell below the 3.25 percent electoral threshold with 3 percent of the vote. Under Israel’s system, no single party has ever won a majority alone, so every government is a coalition — and this time, coalition talks could take weeks.
Why this election matters
The vote is the first since the October 7 attacks, and many voters see it as a referendum on Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. Key issues include who should be held responsible for the October 7 security failures, whether ultra-Orthodox men should be required to serve in the military, the cost of living, and Israel’s standing abroad. Netanyahu is also fighting a corruption trial and faces an International Criminal Court arrest warrant, both of which he rejects.
The polling blackout
Israeli law bars publishing new poll results from the Friday before election day until polling stations close, a rule the Israel Democracy Institute says was adopted in 2007 to prevent misleading information and manipulation. That means the surveys published on October 23 are the last public read before voters cast their ballots — and any late swing will only become visible in the results themselves.
Election-day security measures
Israel has already announced that all West Bank land crossings will be closed on election day, a step reported ahead of the vote, with details here: https://ntmnews.online/?p=1854 The closure underlines how security dominates this campaign, alongside the political contest itself.
What happens after the vote
Even a clear winner on election night would not immediately form a government. The president consults party leaders, tasks one candidate with building a coalition, and weeks of negotiation usually follow — with smaller parties, including Arab parties, potentially decisive. For comparison, Serbia’s recent election also turned on a protest-driven challenge to a long-serving leader, with details here: https://ntmnews.online/?p=1959
A referendum with no clear winner yet
With the final polls pointing to stalemate, Tuesday’s vote looks less like a coronation for either camp and more like the opening round of a long negotiation. Whether Eisenkot can convert a polling lead into a governing coalition, or Netanyahu can defy the surveys once again, will only be known once the ballots are counted.
Sources: The Jerusalem Post, Indian Express, Turkiye Today, October 2026